Behind GDP bounce

No sign of sustainable high growth yet - but fiscal concerns re-emerge

It is now generally believed that economic growth has bottomed out. It reached a trough of 5.7 per cent in the first quarter of 2017-18, before rebounding mildly to 6.3 per cent in the second quarter. Is this a genuine recovery to a higher growth path? Is the business cycle turning? Is it a “dead cat bounce”, in which the force of deceleration was so strong that a reversal was inevitable before stabilisation at a new, much lower level of growth?

We won’t be sure for some time. But some points seem inarguable. First, it is clear that the effects