The decision by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) to stop using the term "drought" makes sense. The weather office is, at best, qualified to pronounce a meteorological drought, taking into account the deficiency of rainfall and the extent of area affected by it. It cannot take a call on agricultural or hydrological droughts, which are determined by considerations beyond rainfall levels. For India, agricultural drought is what matters the most as it can affect crop production, farm incomes and rural demand. However, the noteworthy point is that the extent of deficiency in rainfall which causes withering of crop plants and, hence, drought in one region may not necessarily do so in another, where the irrigation facilities are well developed.
The north-western grain bowl of Punjab, Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh, where over 90 per cent of the crop land is irrigated, is a case in point. The region saw only a marginal reduction in farm harvests despite recording a rainfall deficit of 21 per cent in 2014 and 17 per cent in 2015. Moreover, the effect of the agricultural drought and the strategies needed to cope with it depends largely on the timing of the moisture stress - whether it is in the early part of the crop season or in the middle or end of it. Since it is the local administration and the state governments which are obliged to take the necessary remedial actions, it is better to leave the declaration of drought to their judgement.
Fortunately, hydrological drought, which is caused by heavy depletion of surface and ground water resources, making it difficult to meet the overall demand for water, is quite rare in India, though localised shortage of drinking water does occur quite often. This is because the Indian monsoon has seldom failed completely. Instances of even two consecutive years of poor rainfall - as is the case this year - have occurred only four times in the last 115 years. Whether the monsoon will continue to be as reliable as the globe warms is, however, a moot point.
What must also be noted is that agricultural output in each drought year is invariably higher than in the previous drought year. This year, too, farm production may be higher than last year's, despite a higher rainfall deficiency of 14 per cent, against last year's 12 per cent. According to the gross domestic product (GDP) estimates for the second quarter of the current financial year, agriculture and allied sector grew by 2.2 per cent, a notch more than 2.1 per cent in the corresponding period of 2014-15. The impact of drought on agriculture may gradually weaken as new technologies for making crops drought-proof become available. The rapid growth of allied activities, such as livestock, poultry and fisheries, is also likely to contribute to the resilience of the broad farm sector to a deficit in rainfall.
