The outcome of Palestine’s bid later this week, to get United Nations (UN) recognition as a state, is a foregone conclusion, since the United States has declared its opposition and will most likely use its veto when the matter appears before the Security Council. This will be a repeat of February, when the US vetoed a 14:1 resolution on a more straightforward issue, the fresh Israeli settlements that were coming up on land occupied since the 1967 Arab-Israel war. Earlier, the Palestine Authority had broken off peace talks with Israel because of the fresh settlements on land that a future Palestine state hopes to claim as its own. Israel wants renewal of talks without preconditions (which means the settlements should not be made an issue), and argues that UN resolutions will be pieces of paper that change nothing on the ground. Even if the Palestine Authority meets with a rebuff in the Security Council, it can go to the UN General Assembly with a resolution for observer status, which will need a two-thirds majority (or 128 votes); so far, 120 countries have recognised Palestine. Israel argues that the Oslo Accords of 1993 preclude immediate Palestinian statehood, in that the Accords provide for it to happen in stages.
The real action is likely to be outside the UN. A negative US vote will have repercussions in Arab lands. A year ago, President Obama was speaking out in favour of a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine problem. But when push comes to shove, the US will stand by Israel. If, therefore, it votes against its president’s declared position, it is certain that America’s standing and credibility will suffer across West Asia and North Africa — at a time when the country might have hoped to gain some traction in the wake of its support for the pro-democracy uprisings in North Africa during the Arab Spring. Israel too will feel the fallout of a negative outcome. Its general intransigence has already cost it two key allies in the region, Egypt and Turkey, and Jordan could be next. This is not the first time that Israel will be isolated in its immediate neighbourhood and it is unlikely to lead to any conciliatory diplomatic overtures from Jerusalem.
The Palestine problem has become more intractable over the years owing to demographic and political changes within Israel, where conservative forces have gained in numerical strength, and liberal voices have been pushed into a corner. Ironically, this is a period when the Palestine Authority – accused at one stage of large-scale corruption, of being incapable of providing proper governance, and of permitting violent protests from its soil against Israel – has made considerable progress. Palestine is now committed to peaceful ways of resolving the dispute with Israel, which it recognises, and it has substantially improved its governance standards, a fact acknowledged by international institutions. It would be a pity if a more responsible and better-governed Palestine did not get international support in its search for a just settlement with Israel.
