Bihar stares at early elections as power slips out of JD-U's hands

Early elections in the state now seem inevitable as Manjhi readies to make his play, abetted by the BJP

Expect an election in April-May as Jitan Ram Majhi, current Chief Minister, dissolves the Bihar Assembly after effecting a vertical split in the Legislature Party, abetted by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). After all, why shouldn’t the BJP fish in troubled JD-U waters?

Upper caste leaders like Narendra Singh and Mahadalit leaders like Brishin Patel have joined hands to form a parallel Janata Dal United that will eventually merge with the BJP.

Jitan Ram Manjhi, worried that he will be replaced by Nitish Kumar as chief minister, has already summoned a meeting of legislators on February 20 and is in touch with the BJP. The numbers are not clear yet but an early election in Bihar is almost inevitable.

 

What does this mean? That the MahaDalit project of Nitish Kumar has unraveled? That ultimately, when push comes to shove, it is caste that is the uniting factor in Bihar, not development or progress? 

That question is best answered by the Bihari diaspora – especially in Delhi. The genius of Bihar lies in the fact that although with very little at their command by way of the factors of production, Biharis are arguably the quickest to respond to a challenge, spot a gap in the market and quickly move to capture it. Whether it is autorickshaw driving in Delhi or the trade in vegetables that locals in Haryana or UP are too indolent to involve themselves in, Biharis dominate the business. 

A vegetable seller in one of Delhi’s suburbs was categorical that while Kumar had done fabulous work in Bihar in the early years, his greatest mistake was breaking with the BJP. While weighing the desi tomatoes he said: “His second mistake was tying up with Laluji (former Bihar CM Lalu Prasad Yadav), whose own kin will not forgive him for all those lost years.”

Kumar’s side of the story has no takers: that he could not have worked with Narendra Modi’s hectoring, used as he was to the gentle counsel and affectionate guidance of L K Advani and before that, Atal Bihari Vajpayee. That ultimately, the Muslims of Bihar needed protection and with a rising BJP, felt really threatened. That all he did was walk the talk, by empowering a Dalit like Manjhi, hoping he would grow into the chief minister’s role. That what he could visualise was not the resuscitation of Lalu Yadav, but the appeal to the younger generation of the politically assertive, socially backward castes in Bihar, and so on and so forth. 

The vegetable vendor from Motihari district thrust a bunch of coriander in the plastic bag, the violence of his gesture betraying the emotion he felt. “There’s nothing left – no hope. So we must vote for those who can offer us hope…,” he said decisively. 

Let us make no mistake. In rural Bihar, feudalism still rules. Despite the internet, despite mobile phones, despite free wi-fi along the main roads in Patna, despite the roads, electricity and other reform, the industrial revolution has bypassed the state. Landlords still have a sense of entitlement, while those working for them are yet to get a voice.

In the circumstances, change – revolution is a bridge too far – has come slowly. But there is change – and we have to see what kind of catalyst the clash between the JDU and the BJP proves to be. And so to elections.