BJP hopes note ban will help its poll prospects

Party expects that anti-incumbency with demonetisation will reap rewards for it in the elections

The Assembly election is knocking on Uttarakhand’s door. In the three previous elections, the winning party had stormed to power riding an anti-incumbency wave. This time, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is preparing to snatch power from the ruling Congress. It is still not clear if demonetisation will become a make-or-break factor for the BJP’s poll prospects.
 
State Congress President Kishore Upadhyay has declared war against the BJP on the issue.  Although Chief Minister Harish Rawat supports Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s move against corruption, he has been critical of the hardship faced by the people in withdrawing their own money from banks. Rawat also claims that tourism in the hill state has been hit by the note ban.
 

 
Ahead of the Assembly poll, demonetisation has overshadowed all big issues, including the alleged corruption scandals swirling around Rawat. But there is a big divide on the issue between the plains and the hills. Demonetisation has not made much difference in the hills. In the plains, however, people have been standing in long queues outside banks.

 
BJP ticket seekers in the hills are not too worried. For example, BJP leader Raj Kumar, who is hoping to contest from the Purola Assembly seat in the hilly Garhwal region, says he is not disturbed by the note ban. He says that a majority of the people in the hills are not affected by demonetisation because there is hardly any black money in the region. He is also not too concerned about election expenses this time. “I think we will have to spend only 50 per cent of what we spent in the last election,” he says.

 
In the 2012 poll, the Congress won 21 seats of the total 38 in the hills in the House of 70. The BJP won only 14 seats in the hills. Like Kumar, most BJP leaders, who want to contest from the hills, claim that demonetisation will not hamper the party’s electoral chances.
 
In the plains, though, demonetisation may disturb the BJP’s applecart at the hustings, say political analysts. Party leaders in the plains admit that if the liquidity crunch lingers on for one more month, the picture will not be rosy for the party. “When you see long queues before banks, your heart starts thumping in disquiet,” said a BJP leader, who wants to contest from Dehradun

 
district. The three districts of Dehradun, Udham Singh Nagar and Haridwar, which are considered the industrial regions, constitute 32 seats in the plains. Industrial workers in this belt are the worst hit by demonetisation.
 
In the 2012 election, when the BJP lost power because of one seat only, it had won 17 of the 32 seats in the plains. The Congress bagged only 11 seats in the plains.
 
“We have asked the party high command to ease the liquidity crunch as quickly as possible,” said a top BJP leader. But party leaders claim that 80 to 85 per cent of the people support demonetisation and that it would help the party in the election. “Even if we say that some people such as shopkeepers, who are traditional supporters of the BJP, are upset about the note ban, there are some more people supporting the fight against corruption despite not being BJP voters. So, things could balance out,” suggests another BJP leader. 

 
Black money has played a big role in almost all previous elections in India. With the country facing a cash crunch, most political leaders are of the view that there will be some transparency in the system for the first time. “For bigger expenses, we have to make payments in digital mode or transparently,” said a Congress leader.
 
State BJP President Ajay Bhatt has said that demonetisation would help the party at the hustings. “Look at the Chandigarh municipal election results, where the BJP and Shiromani Akali Dal combine made a clean sweep,” he said. “The results in Uttarakhand will help our party score two-third majority.”