Bush rides into the election arena

My Word!

In modern day warfare good generals do not lead from the front. Instead they hole up in reinforced concrete bunkers and plot the next moves far from the scene of the action. Urging on the troops to greater glory was fine for the likes of Babur or Prithviraj Chauhan. That's left to second lieutenants in this modern age.

So, what should we say about US President George W Bush who flew 27 hours to share Thanksgiving turkey with the troops in Iraq? As a symbolic move it was a terrific gesture and a great morale-builder for the soldiers who thought the fighting was over when they entered Baghdad to minimal resistance. For a few days it might even silence his critics who don't want to openly say 'we told you so' for fear of seeming unpatriotic.

In public relations terms, Bush's sudden emergence in Iraq was probably a masterstroke and it will play wonderfully with the folks in Peoria. Also, there probably wasn't much risk because he flew into a military base and quickly left after a relaxed two-and-a-half hour dinner.

Nevertheless, the fact remains that this isn't a great way to win a war in the long- term. Has Bush furthered the aim of ending the war? The morale-boost will probably evaporate in a few days and the Iraqi opposition won't be cowed into submission by it. So the war will continue and it will become nastier by the day.

But Bush probably wasn't just aiming to demonstrate that he's a braver leader than the great invisible dictator Saddam Hussain. He's really firing the first shot in the re-election campaign for the presidency that is slowly getting underway. The troops are having a tough time in Iraq but heck, the President's out there with them. You can't have a better message for the voters than that.

Unfortunately, for Bush, the elections are coming up rather more swiftly than he would like. The Iraqi desert is turning into a quagmire and the Americans aren't even beginning to figure out the best course of action.

Is there a face-saving way of pulling out troops without returning Iraq to Saddam or some other undesirable? It seems tough at the moment. Even the ebullient Donald Rumsfeld, the father of 'Shock and Awe' is sounding less certain than before.

Does that mean that George Bush is about to follow the example of his father and become only the second one-term president in the history of the United States? Fortunately for him there are signs that he might be spared that ignominy.

The greatest plus point in his favour is the economy which is firing on all cylinders once again. The United States has grown by a stunning 8 per cent in the last quarter, and nobody had expected such a powerful performance. The stock market has picked up the message of growth and has also soared and its rise has brought a return of the feel-good factor.

Most importantly, the growth statistics are finally beginning to be matched by the jobless figures which have in the last few weeks suddenly started falling. That's the best news possible in a country which does not have social security and which does not tolerate rising unemployment.

Are there any magic figures for Bush? If he can bring the jobless figures to below 6 per cent by the middle of next year then he might be able to delay the ride into the political sunset. Don't forget that places like Palo Alto and San Jose, the heartland of the hi-tech revolution had unemployment rates of almost 8 per cent till very recently.

The unemployment figures were probably the reason why Californians evicted the incumbent state governor and brought in political novice Arnold Schwarzenegger in his place.

It was President Clinton who uttered the famous line: "It's the economy, stupid". Bush may be thinking about that line in the coming months as he heads for the campaign trail. If he can keep the economy ticking along till voting day, he may yet be returned to power a year from now "" despite Saddam Hussain's best efforts.