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The reaction to headlines, that seem to hide more than what they reveal, have been on the expected lines. While the so-called secular camp has questioned the timing of the release of census data on religion, others have raised alarm over the fall in Hindus’ share in the total population below 80 per cent for the first time. If they had spent some time going through the data carefully, their reactions would have been different.
The recently released data clearly establish the long-term trend of growth rate of Muslim population in the country falling much faster than that of Hindus. In the decade gone by (2001-2011), while the growth rate of Muslims fell by nearly 5 percentage points, that of Hindus fell by a mere 3 per cent. Even in the previous decade of 1991-2001, while average annual growth of the Hindu population fell by 23 basis points from the previous decade, the decline was much sharper of 27 basis points in the case of Muslims.
Region-wise analysis more clearly establishes that there is nothing called “Hindu fertility” or “Muslim fertility”. That differences in growth rates are all because of socio-economic factors rather than religious affiliations. The latest data show that the rate of growth of Hindus in Bihar is almost twice the rate in Tamil Nadu. Similarly, the rate of growth of Muslims in Kerala is almost half the rate in Uttar Pradesh.
The picture was no different in the previous decade. In the whole of South India, for instance, the average annual population growth rate of Muslims at 1.66 per cent during 1991-2001 was way below the national average of 1.9 per cent in the same period. The average annual population growth rate of Muslims in Kerala and Tamil Nadu were even lower at 1.47 per cent and 1.28 per cent respectively during this period. And we know that southern states in general and Kerala and Tamil Nadu in particular have high literacy rates among women and offer better healthcare services. So blame poor social infrastructure for growth differential and not religion.
Another trend that should not be lost sight of is that the growth rate of Muslims in states where their share in the total population is higher have been muted. There are eight states and union territories in the country where the share of Muslim population is higher than the national average 14.2 per cent. In four of them, the growth rates have been much lower than the overall growth rate of Muslims. And in Kerala and Lakshwadeep, decadal growth rates of Muslim population at 12.8 per cent and 7.5 per cent respectively have been way below the overall growth rate of 17.7 per cent for the country as a whole.
My advice therefore to all those who are talking about “impending demographic imbalance” in next few years is: please do not use the recently released data selectively to raise false alarm. The country has survived such alarm in the past, one such was heard way back in 1909, keeping its demographic structure more or less intact. There is no reason it will not survive many more in the future too.
