Chinese banquet

Diplomacy with China is like an official Chinese banquet. You know when it has started but you don't know when it will end, because there are so many little dishes that keep coming along. Nor do the Chinese let on which the main course is, if there is one.

The recently concluded visit of the Chinese Prime Minister, Wen Jia-bao, is best viewed as just one more of those dishes, and the agreements signed (12, no less) as the little sauces that accompany them. Consider: The process started 17 years ago in 1988, it has been going along since then in small increments, and no one knows what it will lead to and when. All we can be thankful for in the meantime is that something at least appears to be happening.

India has been keen to proclaim two major gains. One is the inclusion of Sikkim in Indian territory in the new Chinese map; the other is the endorsement by China of India's claim to a permanent seat in the Security Council. The former is a fact but the latter may well be just a conjecture because only a week ago China had blocked proposals to expand the Security Council.

Even where the fact is concerned, it is well to bear in mind that it comes after India went nuclear, thus giving content to the Rajiv-Deng agreement of 1988 that borders would not be altered by force. Also, the fact comes without prejudice to other Chinese claims to Indian territory in Arunachal Pradesh and Aksai Chin. Clearly, this meal is going to last and we shouldn't get drunk on Mao-tai.

On the economic side there are some clear and positive gains. More trade will benefit both, and recent years have shown that there is more complementarity between the two economies than many had suspected. So the prospect held out of doubling bilateral trade in five years is grounded in reality.

Also, since India has shown that it is capable of delivering a trade surplus and of teaching the Chinese a thing or two about software, the Chinese are willing to take India more seriously than earlier. But it would be useful to take talk about India and China coordinating their actions on energy issues and in the WTO with a pinch of salt. India and China are competitors in many ways, so that sets a limit to coordination.

The truth one should not forget is that China does not want India to emerge as a regional challenger. Towards that end it has committed itself to a policy that restricts India to South Asia. It is building a port in Gwadar in Pakistan, where it will have naval facilities at the mouth of the Persian Gulf.

It has negotiated similar rights in Myanmar's Coco Islands. With the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea thus taken care of, it has been egging on the rest of India's neighbours, including giving nuclear weapons and missiles to Pakistan and now helping the Nepalese king stamp out democracy. Under these circumstances, it is one thing to go to the banquet and quite another to come away singing its praises. One has to wait until the morning after to be sure.