Japan's central bank may have given global investors a jolt, but it has yet to spur Japanese consumers into action.
The Bank of Japan's aggressive commitment to boost the money supply - unveiled on April 4 - helped lift Breakingviews' Abenomics index for a fifth straight month in April. The index rose to 94.69, from a revised 94.39 in March.
However, consumers largely stayed home. Seasonally adjusted spending by worker households, one of the 10 components of the overall index, dropped six per cent from the previous month in real, or inflation-adjusted, terms.
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To be sure, Abenomics remains in its infancy. In an interview on June 9, the prime minister hinted at a "dramatic" tax break for capital expenditure, which he said will be announced in autumn. That would help new investment and hiring, which are required to keep the consumer economy chugging when Japan's five per cent consumption tax rises to eight per cent in April next year.
Asset markets pose another worry. The spike in government bond yields since early April is unlikely to raise the Abe administration's borrowing costs by too much. But bond market volatility raises the spectre of mark-to-market losses at Japanese financial institutions, and higher interest rates for borrowers.
The recent sell-off in Japanese equities looks more like a pause in the stock market's 77 per cent rally between mid-November and late-May, rather than fundamental investor disenchantment with Abenomics. Nevertheless, a sustained rise in equity prices is important if Japanese consumers are to spend some of their wealth gains.
Unless households open up their wallets, Abenomics might just hit a nasty speed bump.
