The deliberations at different forums at L’Aquila in Italy last week have further confounded the vexed issue of combating climate change. Instead of paving the way for a final agreement on emission reductions in the post-Kyoto period, after 2012, the voices emanating from these forums have added new dimensions to the issue which were not under negotiation thus far. What was expected, and also urgently needed, at this stage was to narrow the span of the climate change talks to firming up the country-specific targets of emission reduction for the Annexure-1 countries (for whom these cuts are binding), so that the non-mandatory but desirable action on the part of other countries could also be considered. Instead, the resolutions adopted at the meeting of the G-8 and that of the Major Economies Forum (MEF) have diverted the focus to vague goals based on equally indistinct parameters.
While the G-8 resolution envisages the far-term aim of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by half by 2050, the MEF declaration dilutes the issue further by seeking to link emission reductions so as to cap the temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. India is a signatory to this and is, thus, committed to contributing to achieve this goal. Though the G-8 also talked of the rich countries cutting emission levels by 80 per cent by 2050, that is too long-term a target to convince the developing countries of decisive and time-bound action, especially since the developed countries have resisted realistic interim targets. In any case, the G-20 goals are far less significant than they seem because it has been left to the individual nations to decide the base year.
What the US does has become significant. After choosing to walk out of the Kyoto process (under a different administration), it now intends to play an aggressive role, without putting its own cards on the table. Also, while it expects others to shoulder big responsibilities — even the developing countries are being asked to cut their emissions by 50 per cent by 2050 — it is, on its own part, unwilling to go beyond a 17 per cent reduction by 2020. On the long-range aim for 2050, too, while some European countries are suggesting 1990 as the base line, the US is pitching for the cuts to be counted against the current levels. That apart, the climate bill passed by the US House of Representatives early this month, seeks to impose trade penalties and tariffs after 2020 on imports from countries that do not have systems for pricing or limiting carbon dioxide emissions. This clause in the Bill, which has the backing of President Barrack Obama, is targeted against countries like India and China which have refused to take on binding targets. Though this measure, even if carried through in the US Senate as well, is unlikely to stand the scrutiny of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) as it is an extraneous trade barrier, it renders suspect the US role as a facilitator of a post-Kyoto agreement. These developments make clear how difficult it will be at the Copenhagen summit in December.
