Considerable scope for increasing farm productivity

OPINION

The prime minister has already referred to the emergence of a technology fatigue in Indian agriculture. This is reflected in the fact that the yield of new varieties released in recent years has plateaued. However, there is still considerable scope for increasing the productivity because the yields actually being achieved for many crops are much below the realisable potential even of existing varieties if best cultivation practices are used.

In wheat, the unutilised potential is only 6 per cent in Punjab, but it is 84 per cent in Madhya Pradesh.

In maize, the gap is only 7 per cent in Gujarat, but it is as high as 300 per cent in Assam.

In rice, the potential yield increase is over 100 per cent in Assam, Bihar, Chhattisgarh and Uttar Pradesh.

These yield gaps suggest that there is considerable scope for increasing production with the existing technology to realise the targets of 4 per cent growth in agricultural GDP in the Eleventh Plan.

In the longer run, we must go beyond closing yield gaps and work to extend the technology frontier to overcome the problem of technology fatigue. This is especially so, given the challenge of global warming and the need to adapt to possible climate change, which may impact adversely the agricultural production, unless we can discover new varieties that can handle new stresses. We need to strengthen our national agricultural research effort to achieve this objective. This calls for additional resources and also a more result oriented, strategically driven research system. We will address these issues in the Eleventh Plan.

Although the potential yield gap is large, it is important to recognise that realising these yields requires co-ordinated effort and additional cost. Part of the additional cost has to be met through increased public investment, or publicly funded plan expenditure on irrigation, watershed management, rural roads, the extension system etc. Another part of the cost has to be incurred by the farmer himself, and this must be facilitated by acting on several fronts. We must address the knowledge gap about what works best under different circumstances.

The prime minister referred to food security as an important objective of agricultural policy. This is especially so in the wake of stagnation in the production of foodgrains over several years.

Fortunately, the yield gaps in foodgrain crops in many areas suggest that we can evolve a strategy for increasing production of wheat by 8 million tonnes, rice by 10 million tonnes and pulses by 2 million tonnes by the end of the Eleventh Plan period. A food security mission will be launched to achieve these objectives, focusing on selected districts that provide scope for significant yield increases at modest costs.

While food security is important, our projections also suggest that the production of foodgrains needs to increase by only 2 to 2.5 per cent a year over the Eleventh Plan period. This means that if agriculture as a whole is to grow at 4 per cent, it will be necessary for other sectors to grow at around 6 per cent. Diversification into horticulture, dairying, poultry and fisheries must therefore form a critical part of our agricultural strategy. We need to pay much more attention to the specific needs of these sectors in the future.

(Excerpts from Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia's address to the National Development Council on May 29)