Counting the grain

FARM VIEW

The first official crop production estimates for 2003-04 projecting a record foodgrain harvest of 212.20 million tonnes, which were released last week, raise more questions about the agriculture sector performance than they answer.

For one thing, these numbers look good only when compared with the crop output in the last drought-ravaged agricultural season. Otherwise, these are not very different from pre-drought production levels.

For this year, 38 million tonnes, or a 22 per cent increase in foodgrains output appears impressive, thanks chiefly to last year's drought-eroded production base. It may also propel the agricultural and overall gross domestic product (GDP) numbers for 2003-04 upwards, from the current reckoning for the same reason.

Significantly, another reason for the handsome year-on-year growth is scaling down the production estimates for last year. The earlier estimate of last year's foodgrain production of 182.57 million tonnes has now been reduced by over 8.3 million tonnes to 174.19 million tonnes.

While the kharif output figure has been lowered from 90.48 million tonnes to 87.81 million tonnes, that of rabi has been reduced from 92.09 million tonnes to 86.38 million tonnes. This has led to further rise in the margin of the production increase this year over last year.

Thus, in reality, the foodgrain output has just managed to recover to pre-drought level and has not grown at all. For, the output was 212.02 million tonnes before the drought in 2001-02 and it is put at 212.20 million tonnes for 2003-04.

The latest data also shows that foodgrain output growth has been negative in two of the first three years of this decade (2000-01, 2002-03) and that the present level is only the same as 2001-02.

It is, therefore, clear that the trend of food output growth failing to keep pace with population growth, that began for the first time in the post-green revolution period in 1990s, is continuing in this.

Indeed, this situation becomes all the more dismal when viewed together with the performance of non-cereal and commercial crops, most of which have failed to cross previous peaks despite a highly benevolent monsoon. Sugarcane output is, in fact, anticipated to fall significantly short of the previous record.

For instance, oilseeds output this year is claimed to be a record 24.9 million tonnes. But, it is not perceptibly higher than the 24.7 million tonnes bagged way back in 1998-99.

Groundnut output is projected to be almost double last year's at 8.47 million tonnes. But it is still far short of the 8.98 million tonnes harvested in 1998-99 and 8.64 million tonnes bagged even earlier in 1996-97.

Again, the output of pulses is forecast to grow 30 per cent this year to touch 14.42 million tonnes. But this figure is nearly half-a-million tonne short of 14.91 million tonnes produced in 1998-99.

Among the major commercial crops, cotton output this year is projected to grow by 42 per cent to 12.38 lakh bales (170 kg each). But it is nowhere near the previous best of 14.2 million bales harvested in 1996-97.

In the case of jute and mesta, too, the current year's anticipated output of 11.59 million bales (180 kg each) compares poorly with 11.64 million bales in 2001-02.

The drop in sugarcane harvest is by far the steepest "" from 300 million tonnes in 2001-02 to an expected 255.4 million tonnes in the current year.

Much of this shortfall is, of course, attributed to the drought and attack of the woolly aphid pest in parts of Maharashtra, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu this season.

The only silver lining is that unlike last year's numbers, which have been revised downwards, this year's figures have a chance of upwards revision when more precise information comes in from the states.

But even if the foodgrain output, the conventional benchmark for measuring crop sector performance, is reworked to, say, around 215 million tonnes (which seems likely) or to a still higher level of beyond 218 million tonnes, the growth over the previous peak would still be meagre.

For, even an output of 220 million tonnes (which was being talked about at the beginning of the ongoing rabi season), would translate into a growth of less than 4 per cent over the previous best.

Thus, agricultural policies need to be reviewed to pinpoint the growth inhibitors and take corrective steps. Some obvious constraints include paucity of investment; outmoded input delivery and output marketing systems; formal and informal controls and curbs on distribution and marketing of the produce; and slower induction of new technology being generated in research centres.

These need to be addressed urgently through policy interventions and amendments of age-old laws concerning land, water, credit, marketing and post-harvest management of agro-produce.