Covid-19 big picture: Brace for a disaster much bigger than you expected

If the business of doubling rate continues as it is currently, be prepared for bad news not just from the perspective of the coming medical challenge but also for the economy, cautions T N Ninan

Forget the details, what is the big picture? First, Covid-19 is going to end up much bigger than most people might have expected. India is about to overtake China in the total number of cases, at about 84,000 — something that was once a very distant prospect. After all, there were barely 500 cases in India at the start of the first lockdown less than eight weeks ago, when China’s number was already over 80,000.
 
The government tracks the doubling rate and sees a slowing down, but it’s not nearly slow enough. We have seen three doublings; that is,