COVID-19: Prepare for second-order effects

Brace yourself for huge, nasty surprises and hope for lucky breaks. It may be a long, bumpy ride

As India enforces a 21-day lockdown, I have a sense that we are living in the pleasant hope that we will dramatically slow the spread of the virus over the lockdown period, and things will limp back to normal after the lockdown is lifted. This rosy scenario, combined with the tsunami of stimulus efforts unleashed by many countries including the US and India, will substantially mitigate the enormous global disruption. That is what the markets are looking forward to, which is why stocks have taken off from the lows they hit earlier this week. A global market rally underpins that