COVID: Flattening the (economic cost) curve

Flattening the outbreak curve will necessarily entail steepening the economic cost curve; policy will have to cushion the economic blow

The salient lesson emerging from COVID-19 is clear: Only aggressive, almost draconian, social-distancing measures will help linearise an otherwise exponential spread of the virus. Countries that have acted early and aggressively appear to have contained the proliferation. Those that have fallen behind the curve, are seeing their health-care systems overrun and their cities forced into complete lockdown.

As India’s cases rise above the three-digit mark, policymakers are understandably clamping down: Malls, movie theaters and schools are being shut down and travel restrictions are getting more acute. These measures are being complemented by self-imposed restrictions on the part of risk-averse households and