Much like the famous tale of the group of blind men and the elephant, the Doha trade negotiations have now degenerated into an interminable source of conflict over what the mandate entails. Consequently, there has been a logjam in negotiations at the World Trade Organisation — which ought to be the epicenter for the Doha talks — during the last seven months. Tectonic changes in governments, particularly in Washington, have definitely contributed to the present state of affairs.
There has been a pronounced failure to provide a robust roadmap to keep the multilateral talks going. Repeated attempts to drive the negotiation along the lines desired by the US haven’t worked. This has served as a reminder to the new US administration that fundamental changes will be unacceptable. The biggest stumbling block, of course, has been the idea that trade ministers from a small group of powerful countries can broker a deal — instead of focusing on the talks being truly multilateral.
So, when WTO members packed their bags for the summer break last week, there was still no clarity on how this stalemate would end. “Mere compilation of a schedule of meetings, like railway timetables, do not add up to a strategy and what members need is clarity and strategic vision,” Crawford Falconer, New Zealand’s senior trade official and the former chair for Doha agriculture negotiations, warned WTO members.
Because of the pioneering role he had played as the chair of the difficult agriculture dossier during the challenging period between 2006 and 2008, Falconer attained enormous goodwill and respect. Almost every member reposed trust and confidence in this venerable New Zealand trade official including those who remained at daggers drawn — the United States with India and China on the special safeguard mechanism; the US and the four west African countries on cotton; Canada, Japan, and Switzerland with Brazil, Argentina and Australia on the number and treatment of sensitive products.
Falconer is also known for restarting the Doha talks when they were suspended in 2006 — quite like what Charles-I did in 17th century when he suspended the parliament of England. Starting from his ‘challenges’ paper in early 2007 to the final revised draft as well as the outstanding issues circulated in December 2008, the former chair brought members close to a consensus. “Falconer consistently works to strip away the nonsense, politics, and disinformation that dogs these type of negotiations” and “his reports read like a stern uncle reining in a bunch of wayward nephews — they are direct, utterly sensible, and beyond cavil,” said David S Christy, Jr in his commentary on ‘Geneva’s Winners and Losers, A View from the Dugout’. But, like Socrates, Falconer was axed and asked to return to his national capital Wellington in April this year because of dirty tricks and behind-the-scene machinations by some controversial actors.
His sudden appearance at the informal trade negotiations committee meeting and his straight and focused intervention rattled the WTO hierarchy, especially its director general — who recently demanded a raise in his salary notwithstanding the grave economic and social conditions that he spoke of during the Aid for Trade meeting. What did Falconer say that the WTO-leadership should be so worried about?
In a conversation with Business Standard, Falconer listed some major reasons as to why the Doha trade negotiations are in the ‘Devil’s Triangle’. One, there is no clarity on how to accomplish procedural and substantive breakthroughs that can close the negotiations. Two, WTO members at large remain confused because of conflicting signals from the WTO’s leadership on whether the modalities in Doha agriculture and market-opening for industrial goods — which suggests the tariff and subsidy cuts — will be completed prior to embarking on other areas.
Three, the excessive faith in bilateral meetings poses a grave challenge because of differing levels of ambition of the negotiating countries. Lastly, if things are not taken care of quickly, the political oxygen will be sucked out. Little wonder then, that Falconer’s remarks had the elemental power of the Indian monsoon on the drought-stricken WTO members. One only wishes that New Delhi pays attention to these remarks!
