It may not be right to say that first wave of Covid-19 has peaked in India

We knew from the moment the pandemic took hold that this would be a long haul - at least 12 to 18 months. Nothing should have changed that assessment.

The government and some public health experts are confident that the first wave of the coronavirus has peaked in India. Daily infections have dropped by about 20 per cent in the past three weeks. Even the epidemiologists in the Union finance ministry have gotten into the act, saying in its economic review for September that “India may have crossed the peak of Covid-19 cases” during the period from September 17 to 30. Maharashtra in particular has seen a clear decline in mid-September of almost 40 per cent in terms of its new cases. 

There are four reasons to feel dubious