Devangshu Datta: The economics of escape velocity

TECHNO BEAT

On an EU supermarket shelf, a 30 gram-tin of caviar costs € 70, translating to a whopping Rs 1.3 lakh per kilo. In space, however, caviar is cheap. At 2,600 calories per kg, it pays to feed beluga to astronauts because it costs $ 22,000 (Rs 10.4 lakh) to carry a single kilo beyond Earth's gravity-well.

Historically, the economics of escape velocity have intimidated private entrepreneurs. Not anymore. There are now at least 26 private associations with declared intentions of designing and building commercial spaceships to carry passengers and cargo.

The costs could reduce dramatically. There's been little innovation in spaceship design since the Space Shuttle Programme began in the late 1970s. Given the pace of scientific advance, there's plenty of room for radical design-improvement.

If that happens, space tourism, low-cost satellite launch, rapid global transit could all become viable. A host of ancillary industries would also develop out of the blue or rather, the black, airless void beyond the blue.

A year ago, on June 11, 2003, this column mentioned Burt Rutan's attempt to build a working spaceship. On June 21, 2004, Mike Melvill, a 62-year-old grandfather, piloted Rutan's design, the SpaceShipOne across the Mohave Desert at a speed of 4,000 kmph, in a three-minute flight that soared to over 90 km.

The test-flight had one major problem when a stabilising system collapsed, threatening to send it into an uncontrollable roll. A backup system worked, although the flight flipped 20 km out of its target zone.

The launch was smooth, with SpaceShipOne carried to 15,000 metres by a carrier plane, White Knight, before it was released to run off its own propulsion unit. The SpaceShipOne rocket burns an unusual mix of liquid rubber and nitrous oxide (laughing gas). The plane folds its wings to reduce friction during descent.

According to Paul Allen, who backed the project, SpaceShipOne and White Knight cost "something above $ 20 million" (Rs 95 crore). SpaceShipOne is the same size as a sports utility vehicle and it can carry upto three crew members. Each space shuttle costs over $ 2 billion.

A shuttle can carry a crew of eight and several tonnes for upto three weeks at a time. It hits a top-speed of over 28,000 kmph, necessary for orbital flights.

But it's perfectly possible that a market for small sub-orbitals like SpaceShipOne will develop. In a recent poll of 450 millionaires, one in five said they would pay upto $ 100,000 (Rs 47 lakh) for a one-hour spaceflight. Dennis Tito is not alone.

The next step for Rutan's company Scaled Composites is to pip major rivals such as Armadillo Aerospace, Bristol Spaceplanes, Canadian Arrow and Starchaser Industries in bagging the "Ansari X Prize". That's $ 10 million to the first organisation to send three people 100 km up in space and bring them down safely, twice within the space of 14 days. The time limit expires on December 31, 2004.

The X Prize Foundation, a 12-person consortium led by Philip Diamandis, believes similar prizes helped kickstart the commercial aviation industry in the 1930s. Nasa's exploration vehicle department has also announced it might offer rewards of between $ 10 million and $ 30 million for various space vehicle designs and demonstrations. Finding the money won't be a problem, given President Bush's enthusiasm for a manned Mars landing.

There's plenty of know-how related to space-travel in the private domain. Every one of the millions of components in Nasa's fleet has been tendered for, and manufactured by private enterprise. Even other state-controlled programmes, such as India's Indian Space Research Organisation (Isro) and Europe's Ariane, use off-the-shelf components.

But it is only recently that design and funding started being done privately. Those could be the crucial elements in developing commercial space travel. Quite apart from prizes, incentives and potential payoffs, space inspires passion.

The X Prize Foundation says it wants new heroes. Paul Allen and Jeff Bezos (of Amazon) are the best-known and wealthiest investors backing private spaceflight. They are by no means the only ones.