Devangshu Datta: The Kyoto Protocol - coming clean

TECHNO BEAT

At 10.30 a m (IST), Wednesday, the Kyoto Protocol went into effect. Under the accord formally ratified by 140 countries, signatories are committed to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6). These gases cause retention of heat in the atmosphere.

It is the first serious attempt to prevent global warming and catastrophic climate change. Unfortunately the US "" the world's biggest emitter of greenhouse gases "" has stayed out of the accord, along with Australia.

But 35 other developed nations have set reduction targets with their respective 1990 emission levels as the benchmark. In the initial stages, developing nations like India and China (both signatories) don't have reduction targets.

Global warming is not a new idea. It was mooted in 1898 by Swedish scientist Svante Ahrrenius, who suggested that carbon dioxide from coal and oil could warm the planet.

This was prophetic. Average global temperature rose by 0.6 degree centigrade between 1900 and 1990. It could increase by another 5.8 degree centigrade by 2100, according to estimates from the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

By 1955, tests showed that there were 315 parts per million (ppm) of CO2 in the atmosphere: a significant rise from the estimated 280 ppm level of the pre-industrial revolution era circa 1750. By 2004, CO2 content had reached 379 ppm. The 10 hottest years ever recorded have occurred between 1990 and 2005.

The protocol was put together in 1997 in the old imperial capital of Japan. The Clinton administration was a signatory but one of Bush's first acts after assuming office was to renounce America's original commitment to reduce emissions by 7 per cent below 1990-level by 2012. He said it would stunt US growth and cause industrial production to shift out from America.

Australia is the only other developed nation to stay out. These two countries produce 30 per cent of global emissions between them. The non-participation is politically expedient "" implementing the Kyoto Protocol would cause the maximum pain to them.

Russia vacillated for a long while and finally came on board in November 2004. Russian ratification was crucial. The protocol would not have been legally binding if it had not been ratified by countries accounting for 55 per cent of global emissions.

Kyoto initially calls for 35 developed nations to limit greenhouse gas emissions to 95 per cent of 1990 levels, between 2008 and 2012. The individual targets vary. The European Union is committed to cutting emissions to 8 per cent below 1990 levels by 2012. Japan will reduce emissions by 6 per cent by 2012. Russia will stabilise at 1990 level.

Failure to meet emission targets would result in stiffer subsequent quotas. Adhering to the protocol will cause a sea-change in industrial production methods since most of the world's major industries depend one way or the other on fossil-fuel usage.

Implementation will create a big international market in trading of carbon credits. Credits are a system of emission quotas for industries that can be traded. A low emitter receives monetary reward by selling unutilised credits to high emission industries, which also have an obvious incentive to cut down.

This should also give a massive global impetus to funding the development of fuel-cell and other clean energy-based systems. Given penalties for inefficient energy use and air pollution, market forces should lead to a beneficial outcome.

While India and China have no commitments under the first round, negotiations will begin later this year where the larger developing economies will have to commit to reductions. Without this, China is projected to become the major source of emissions by around 2020.

Global warming could lead to species extinction. The golden toad of Costa Rica has already become extinct through loss of habitat. The World Wildlife Fund says polar bears could be wiped out in just over 20 years.

Even more damagingly, low-lying coastal areas and island nations could be flooded out. Kyoto is just the start of a long and painful struggle to reverse the damage caused by over 200 years of industrialisation.