Dispelling growth delusions

Trends in the ingredients of the 'noughties' growth surge do not augur well for sustained 8 per cent plus growth in the future

Whenever official estimates of GDP growth creep up over 7 per cent, as they did for 2017-18 Q3, voices (including of senior government spokespersons) proliferate claiming that 8-10 per cent hyper growth is around the corner. It’s time for a reality check. Before getting into the main issues, it is also important to reiterate that the new (since 2015) estimates of GDP growth (with base 2011-12) are non-comparable to the earlier (2004-05 base) estimates. For the only three common years, 2012-13, 2013-14 and 2014-15, the new series gives a GDP growth estimate that averages nearly 1.5 percentage points higher than