The performance of the monsoon in the first half of its four-month run is dismaying, though there are a few redeeming aspects. The cumulative rainfall in the country between June 1 and July-end is reckoned to be 19 per cent below normal. Deficiency of this order, if sustained during the rest of the season, would be equivalent to that in 2002 and 1987, the two worst drought years in recent history. The monsoon is now going through a subdued phase and the weather office does not foresee any revival in the next few days. That adds to the concern.
The monsoon has traced a peculiar course this year. After setting in over Kerala a few days ahead of schedule, the monsoon covered the major part of the country by the first week of June, instead of June-end, but went into a hiatus soon after. As a result, rainfall deficiency aggravated from 32 per cent to as high as 54 per cent by the end of the third week. However, the situation began looking up in July, to reduce rainfall paucity to 19 per cent by July-end. The best improvement in the rainfall situation has been witnessed in Central India, which turned from 73 per cent rain-deficient at the end of the third week of June to 1 per cent rain-surplus by July-end. The north-eastern region, on the other hand, has remained significantly rain-deficient, with the shortfall ranging between 34 and 43 per cent during this period, despite widespread showers towards the end of July. Elsewhere, the rain situation improved slightly in North-west India, barring Western Uttar Pradesh, and fluctuated in the south peninsula to keep the deficiency level around 35 to 40 per cent.
Such a distribution of rainfall has softened the adverse impact of poor rainfall on agriculture and facilitated a noticeable replenishment of water in reservoirs across the country. The total water stock in the 81 major reservoirs has risen from the precariously low levels of June-end to above normal, and also above last year’s corresponding level at the end of July. While this is a reassuring hydrological factor, the agricultural sector has continued to throw up mixed signals. The sowing of paddy, the main kharif staple cereal, has been relatively poor. But the planting of other crops, especially those that do not require much water, such as coarse cereals and pulses, and even commercial crops like oilseeds and cotton, has been better than last year. There is every possibility, therefore, that the likely shortfall in rice output may be partly made up by higher output of coarse cereals and pulses, which are also counted as food crops. If that happens, it might have a sobering effect on the high ruling prices of coarse cereals and pulses. In its totality, however, this year’s monsoon has so far been causing more despair than hope, and that has serious implications for everyone.
