Donald Trump says he would be "the greatest jobs president that God ever created" - but he may not need to be. He and the other Republicans who want to run for the US presidency held their first debates on Thursday, but didn't dwell on economic issues. Friday's report showing solid jobs growth in July and unemployment holding at a fairly low 5.3 per cent is one reason why.
The employment numbers showed 215,000 new non-farm positions added last month, not far from expectations. This is hardly exciting, but it signals a slowly tightening labour market. Wages, too, are increasing - if moderately - at 2.1 per cent year-over-year.
On current trends, the unemployment rate should be well below five per cent by the time American voters elect their next president in November 2016. That's the level traditionally considered to be the sustainable rate of full employment. The election is 15 months away - and in the past 15 months, the jobless rate fell by a full percentage point.
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Bush's numbers are fanciful. Take jobs. Start with about eight million unemployed people at the start of 2017. Assume labour-force growth of one million per year plus another six million re-entering the workforce, and that's 22 million potential workers. If all but three million of them found jobs, the unemployment rate would drop below two per cent, Breakingviews calculates. It hasn't even come close to three per cent in 60 years or so.
Economic growth, at about 2.3 per cent over the year to June according to official estimates, is not stellar, but if it continues then by next fall voters should be feeling the steady improvement - perhaps even finally in pay packets. Elections are always about growth, jobs and wages to some extent. But Trump, Bush and the others may find their economic sound bites won't resonate as much as usual come next November.
