Economic Outlook for 2021-22

Outlook beset by uncertainties, but GDP in 2021-22 likely to be lower than in 2019-20

Almost exactly a year ago, hardly three months into the Covid pandemic in India and seven weeks after the imposition of a national lockdown, I had projected that GDP in the first quarter (Q1) of 2020-21 would crash by 25 per cent (y-o-y) and full year GDP could plunge by 11-14 per cent (“The lockdown hammer”, Business Standard, May 14, 2020). At that time, the government, international organisations like the IMF/World Bank, leading investment banks and credit rating agencies were still expecting positive growth in 2020-21! In the event, 2020-21 Q1 GDP did crash by 24 per cent. However, thanks