The tests drove a coach and four through the faulty logic of the NPT, but India has still not been able to break through the barriers set up by the treaty and by the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). It has a unique chance now because President Bush decided to get rid of the nuclear issue in the bilateral context, but the Left parties have so far stalled what would have been a culmination of the logic of the tests, in terms of new agreements with the International Atomic Energy Agency, the NSG and the US itself. More strangely, the BJP, which was the lead player in the NDA and which has long advocated that India should be a nuclear power, has also opposed the steps that would help India get a unique nuclear status without formally being a member of the NPT's club of haves. In that sense, the true benefits that could have flowed from the tests of a decade ago (being able to run a civilian nuclear power programme with international help on technology and supplies, without giving up the strategic weapons programme) are now being denied to the country because of competitive party politics. In the process, India has certainly lost in terms of its international standing and even reputation.
What of the immediate neighbourhood? The fact that both India and Pakistan now have nuclear weapons means that the chances of another Indo-Pak war are quite slim, if not close to non-existent. Pakistan has been able to use its own tests and its nuclear programme to neutralise India's overwhelming advantage in conventional forces and weaponry. The key question is whether this common realisation will drive the two countries towards positive engagement and gradual de-militarisation. The real worry, rather than open war, is the risk that Pakistan's nuclear weapons might fall into the hands of irresponsible jihadists, which would then create the mother of all nuclear nightmares. As for China, which George Fernandes (the defence minister in 1998) had characterised immediately after the tests as Enemy No. 1, India's nuclear doctrine of "no first use" means that the engagement with (and tensions between) the two countries continue along the earlier tracks, without the nuclear equation having become a factor in bilateral ties.
