Election season

For those looking for confirmation that the Congress is inclined towards dissolution of the Lok Sabha before its terms ends in 2009, a very heavy straw in the wind floated in through the window on Monday afternoon "" the appointment of Rahul Gandhi as a general secretary of the party. The announcement might have been made sooner if Mr Gandhi had led the Congress to a better performance in the UP assembly elections in the summer; his poor showing there (despite attracting large crowds and a lot of media attention) would have made an immediate elevation to general secretary look strange. It is possible that his elevation could not be postponed indefinitely, since the party had to gear up for elections "" hence Monday's announcement. And if any doubt were left about the real agenda item being preparation for general elections, it would have been dispelled by the announcement of a manifesto committee.

The precise timing of the general elections next year might be influenced by the Congress performance in the Gujarat assembly elections, due in December. A second crucial factor would be assessments of the number of seats that could be won by the Bahujan Samaj Party (led by the UP chief minister, Ms Mayawati), since the BSP could be a crucial post-poll ally. And given the apparent unpreparedness of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Congress would be tempted to hold elections earlier rather than later.

As the man in charge of the Congress's organisations for youth and students, Mr Gandhi will presumably be used to appeal to younger voters, and the committee (on "future challenges") comprising mostly other young scions of political families could be used to broadbase this effort. However, the composition of the manifesto committee suggests that the old guard will also have its say, and indeed that the manifesto is likely to stick to a variation of the 'aam aadmi' theme. Mr Gandhi himself has been given a fairly well-defined role, but it goes without saying that he will have a substantial say in many other matters, including the eventual selection of candidates for the different constituencies. He is, after all, the new face in a surprisingly long-running political dynasty. However, given his general lack of experience, it is probably too soon to project him as the party's choice for the next head of government "" raising the question whether Manmohan Singh might be asked to continue, should the party be returned to power.

The problem for the Congress is that the Gandhi name works better with the party faithful than with the voter. The party has virtually no organisational base in half a dozen states that contribute 40 per cent of Lok Sabha seats. It is an impossible task to build a new base in places like UP, Bihar and Tamil Nadu, not to mention Gujarat and West Bengal, in time for the next elections. So the best that the party can hope to do is to improve on its present strength so that it is more in control of the coalition that it hopes to lead. The primary worry is not whether the Congress or the BJP (and they both have negative characteristics) will come to power after the elections, but whether these two national parties will continue to lose ground to the smaller parties in the fray. If they do, coalition governments in New Delhi will become even more of a circus after the elections.