First hurdle

The first vote in the US Congress signals that the nuclear deal with India has broad, bi-partisan support in that country. Critics have focused on how it harms the goal of nuclear non-proliferation, but India has never been a proliferator and the pact is in any case confined to nuclear electricity. Nor does the deal violate the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), to which the US is a signatory. Nevertheless, if even some Congressmen who might have qualms on these issues have chosen to vote for the deal, it is because almost everyone in a position of responsibility in the US recognises the growing importance of that country's relations with India and that the nuclear deal has become the symbol of a new beginning.

However, this is just the first hurdle. There has to be a similar vote in a Senate committee, possibly next week, to be followed by the full houses passing enabling legislation, after which India will have to hammer out detailed agreements with the US government and with the International Atomic Energy Agency, win endorsement from the Nuclear Suppliers Group, and then get final support from the two houses of the US Congress. These will not be easy hurdles to cross, will take months, and some compromises may be made along the way. Indeed, progress has been slower than what the principals might have expected when the deal was hammered out nearly a year ago, and India has already made some significant concessions since that July 18 announcement. Equally, the US has tried to extract more from the deal than was initially envisaged. Since much of what is finally sealed gets determined in the detailed drafting of agreements, there is hard work still to be done. So far, however, what is on the table is something that is in India's interest to pursue.

The Congressional vote bears testimony to the most concentrated lobbying effort that India has ever mounted in Washington. The Indian embassy has been very active while being low-key, on top of which it has paid lobbyists working overtime. The role played by the Indo-US business council and some large American companies (like General Electric, Boeing and Ford), has been significant as they have spoken from the American perspective and (like those on the Indian side) met every Senator and Congressman to argue that the agreement is a good one for both sides.

US government representatives have given testimony while President Bush has chipped in personally. This combined effort has meant that even those who were initially reluctant to sign up finally fell in line. It is interesting, for instance, that Hillary Clinton has so far not said anything on the subject, though she is the co-chair of the India caucus in the Senate. Still, by a week ago, it was evident that Congressional support would be clear and substantial by the time it came to voting. The overwhelming support that has now been demonstrated will give fresh momentum to the deal as it goes through subsequent stages of negotiation.