Food, the switch and the wardrobe

Opening up in the US may switch spending to services and wardrobe restocking, and de-stock overflowing pantries

Retail sales in a country, dependent on the collective habits and budgets of millions of households, tend to be quite stable: Imagine an upward-sloping straight line (called the trend line), and monthly sales move along it like a creeper plant along a string. It is only during shocks like the financial crisis of 2008 or the pandemic-driven lockdowns last year that they move far away from the trend line. They then quickly come back to trend, often a different one due to the shock.

Global retail sales of goods, after dipping last year, have recovered rapidly, aided by record levels of