Forecasting the weather

The man in the street has not been the only one to be taken by surprise by the temperature dipping to near freezing point in the northern region, including Delhi, on Sunday morning. The national weather forecaster""the India Meteorological Department (IMD)""was caught equally unawares, though several foreign weather bureaus had accurately predicted the intensity of the cold wave some days earlier. The northern hills have been experiencing heavy snowfall since the last week of December, making it one of the longest and coldest spells in several decades. The importance of accurate forecasts goes beyond the issue of human comfort, as the deaths due to the cold wave testify, and also has serious economic implications. Ironically, the IMD has repeatedly been caught napping, and the international television channels and some weather websites frequently offer more accurate forecasts. Yet, the demand has been made that private weather forecasts should be banned, and the IMD given a monopoly in the field. This is folly. The IMD should test its mettle against competition, and let the public decide whom they choose to believe.

Where agriculture is concerned, the impact of the unusually low temperatures is a mixed one. While it is good for winter crops, including wheat, which require chill for good seed germination and plant growth, the frost that may accompany it in isolated pockets can harm cold-sensitive crops like gram and mustard. Some fruits and vegetable crops, too, can be adversely affected by severe cold. Of course, the potential damage from frost can be minimised in the irrigated tracts by watering plants prior to its occurrence. But for this, cultivators need to be forewarned""which is where the IMD comes in. What should cause worry is that its forecasting capabilities remain woefully deficient despite changes in their prediction models and induction of modern technology through a special grant in 2004. One should be thankful for the private sector forecasts that have turned out to be more accurate.

From a larger economic viewpoint, the accumulation of snow on the hills is a welcome development as it will keep the Himalayan rivers flowing during the coming summer to irrigate crops and replenish water storage in the reservoirs, thus keeping hydel power production units running. The power shortage in the summer may not therefore be as acute as it might otherwise have been, portending well for industrial production as well. On a more tangential note, the cold spell has brought cheer to several other economic players""like manufacturers of products like Chayawanprash, wines and liquor, tea and coffee, and woollen clothes, to name a few. Reports from Ludhiana, the hub of the woollen hosiery in the north, speak of a sudden spurt in offtake and clearance of built-up inventories.

The current weather pattern should also make environmentalists revisit their climate change theories. For some, the unusual fall in temperature, coupled with the recent, equally unusual heavy downpours towards the end of the monsoon season in several areas, including metros like Mumbai and Chennai, will mean corroboration of the climate change theory that warns of weather aberrations like extreme heat or cold waves, and rains and drought across the globe. Others may dispute this hypothesis, arguing that if the temperature in Delhi could drop to minus 0.6 degrees Celsius in 1935, where is the sign of any climate change? Many seminars can be held on the subject, preferably in warm conference halls.