The remarkable calm in the oil market has relied on a rather predictable Middle East. The region has just become a lot more volatile. The oil price might follow.
Oil has held steadier over the last three years than in any similar period for four decades, circling around $110 a barrel of Brent. Such stability would have been much harder to maintain if Iran's exports had not fallen by two-thirds since 2011, and if Iraqi production had not been held back for more than a decade by sanctions, wars and unrest. Both factors acted as a counterweight to rapidly increasing production elsewhere.
However, the latest insurgency in Iraq could tip the market balance. The strength of the radical, transnational ISIL rebels and the weakness of Iraq's regular army has disrupted the region's political calculations. The risk is that serious conflict spreads from neighbouring Syria to all of Iraq.
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The focus now is on Saudi Arabia and Iran. Both remain key to the oil market's stability. With about 9.75 million barrels a day, Saudi is the Middle East's largest oil producer, International Energy Agency data for May 2014 shows. With 2.80 million barrels a day, Iran is the region's third-biggest player, having recently been overtaken by Iraq. Saudi is particularly important because it has long been the world's swing producer, helping to keep prices steady.
There's a lot at stake for the two other regional heavyweights. Each will be keen to maintain the market status quo. But the rapid rise of a force which is deeply antagonistic to both represents a significant new threat.
