Gains in peace

As the conflict in Lebanon gives way to a ceasefire, it is becoming increasingly clear that there was more complexity to it than first appeared to be the case. The kidnapping of Israeli soldiers by Hezbollah was not new. There have been pinpricks of this nature inflicted upon northern Israel for many months now. In some ways, the situation in Israel was not unlike what India has faced, in that attacks come from across the boundary and the attackers have a sanctuary in a weak state. There are similarities with the Taliban / al Qaeda situation in Afghanistan also, though the Lebanese government appears to have been a less willing host to Hezbollah when compared with the Taliban.

Hezbollah is a different animal when compared with the Palestine Liberation Organisation, which long fought against Israel. Hezbollah appears to have acquired considerable military hardware, whose source of supply would be interesting to unearth. In recent years, high oil prices have led to slush money being placed in the hands of dubious characters in West Asia, which has led to fresh resources flowing into various jehadi bands.

Perceptive analysts have long known that a war against Hezbollah was inevitable. Israel also appears to have prepared itself for a full-scale conflict, and the kidnapping of two soldiers served as the last trigger on a simmering problem.

From an Israeli perspective, Hezbollah has been significantly defanged in terms of destruction of military hardware. The strategic Israeli goal""of being seen to win every conflict""has been largely achieved; no surrounding country will lose respect for the Israeli army out of this episode. With the 30,000-strong peace-keeping force, the northern boundary of Israel will be somewhat safer. However, this has been obtained at great cost to Israel in terms of giving Hezbollah new supporters across West Asia.

The deeper story concerns the efforts of the international community, led by the US, on Iran's nuclear ambitions. As long as Hezbollah was strong in southern Lebanon, there was always the danger that when pressure on Iran escalated, Iran could trigger a proxy war against Israel, one that would immediately polarise West Asia in favour of Iran. That lever has now been taken away, both by the destruction of Hezbollah military assets, and by the injection of the peace-keeping force. It thus reduces the bargaining power of Iran in the coming confrontation about nuclear weapons.

Where do India's interests lie, in this conflict? There are elements which strike both ways. It is in India's interests that Iran does not acquire nuclear weapons. It is in India's interests that non-state actors such as the LeT or al Qaeda or Hezbollah have reduced power, both from the viewpoint of direct attacks in India, and from the viewpoint of the health of the global economy. It is in India's interests that Israel be strong and safe, given the burgeoning economic and military links between the two countries. However, at the same time, there are factors that go the other way. It is not in India's interests to have high oil prices, which geopolitical tension in West Asia can cause. India has important economic links with countries like the UAE, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, and the long-term health of these countries is undermined by the popularity of Hezbollah.