Where will Vladimir Putin go next? After annexing the Crimea, there are fears that Russia's president will send his army into eastern Ukraine and even other countries that once formed the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. From an economic standpoint, though, Putin would be better off heading north. All the way north.
The Arctic Circle is a far more resource-rich area than any he will find in Europe. And in the midst of the Ukraine crisis, the eight-member Arctic Council is meeting this week to discuss the future of the region. Each country's representatives may ostensibly be there only to talk about environmental issues. But Canada, Denmark and Russia each claim that much of the oil and gas under the ice belongs to them.
The North Pole and its environs are home to some 90 billion barrels of undiscovered black gold and almost 1,700 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, according to the most recent US geological survey in 2008. All in, that's worth some $17 trillion at current prices and doesn't account for natural gas liquids and other minerals.
Moreover, those reserves are getting easier to tap into - and not just because technology is improving. Climate change is having an effect, too. Arctic sea ice in February was an average of 14.4 million square kilometers, the fourth-lowest measurement on record.
Which state might own what is under dispute because of the lack of clarity on where the continental shelves are. That makes defining national borders tricky. The Lomonosov Ridge, which the USSR discovered in 1948, is at the heart of these disputes. This 1,800-km underwater ridge runs through Russian, Danish and Canadian continental shelves.
Putin has been increasing his country's military presence in the region for at least two years now. Fellow Council members, while not happy, seemed willing to accept it. The Crimea crisis may well change their relatively passive stance - and may suggest that a storm lies ahead.
