Growth, Budget and macro balances

The responsible revenue and expenditure projections are to be lauded, but efforts on trade and fiscal targets fall short

On February 1, a leading business daily headlined its main front page story “Economic Survey sees FY24 GDP growth slowing to 6.5 per cent”. It was not strictly inaccurate, since the January 6 first advance estimates by the National Statistical Office (NSO) had projected 7 per cent growth for FY23. Nor would it be surprising given the near-recessionary conditions expected in much of the world in FY24.

However, a more careful examination of the official national income data shows that the Survey’s 6.5 per cent growth projection for FY24 constitutes a major acceleration over the 4.3-4.4 per cent growth projected by