Robert Skidelsky, the biographer of John Maynard Keynes, was in town recently, and he reminded us that inescapable uncertainty is the centrepiece of Keynes’ theory. Uncertainty is built into capitalism because the rewards of investment come later. Uncertainty is also a theme of the epic, Mahabharata, where the game of dice is a metaphor for uncertain and vulnerable human life. As if to prove this point, comes the heartbreaking story of Bt brinjal. Uncertainty usually arises in an entrepreneur’s life from the unpredictable responses of competitors in the marketplace, but in India, the largest risks still emanate from the government and its regulatory process.
The Maharashtra Hybrid Seeds Company, popularly called Mahyco, toiled for a decade to develop Bt brinjal, a genetically modified eggplant or aubergine. The company was founded in 1964 by BR Barwale, who received the World Food Prize in 1998 for his pioneering work in hybrid seeds, and today Monsanto holds a 26 per cent stake in it. Its scientists worked for years to find a solution to tackling the pest, brinjal fruit and shoot borer, which wipes out 30-40 per cent of India’s annual crop; they conducted 25 environmental bio-safety studies supervised by independent and government agencies to ensure that it had the same nutritional value and was compositionally identical to non-Bt brinjal; finally, they conducted rigorous field trials in collaboration with two Indian agricultural universities.
In October 2009, the invention was approved by the government’s Genetic Engineering Approval Committee, which declared it safe and effective. Indian and international scientists hailed the innovation, saying that it would open doors to research on more popular foods like rice and wheat. However, Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh stopped its introduction last month. He privileged the concerns of environmental groups that had opposed it on grounds of potential human and animal health, and biodiversity. In placing an indefinite “moratorium”, Ramesh adopted the precautionary principle, citing the need for more safety data, ignoring the verdict of his own scientists who had approved Bt brinjal after intensive trials according to well established protocol. He also questioned the logic of letting private companies drive biotechnology research in agriculture.
Ramesh’s decision is a tragic setback for Mahyco and other entrepreneurs as well as scientists who have invested years of research in this and other transgenic crops. He also introduced uncertainty in the entrepreneur’s life when he brought new considerations to bear in his decision which undermined the fundamental trust that is essential between the entrepreneur and the government. To question the role of private research after an entrepreneur works for 10 years in pre-agreed trials introduces the sort of unpredictability that is unacceptable in a stable, democratic order which is based on the rule of law rather than that of men.
As it is, the entrepreneur takes huge risks often in the face of insufficient knowledge. George Akerlof, Michael Spence and other economists have expanded on this idea, and traced it to “asymmetries of information” in the marketplace. To understand Mahyco’s unhappy situation, try to picture the look of shocked incomprehension on Yudhishthira’s face in the Mahabharata when he loses his kingdom and his wife in a rigged game of dice, and this happens at the very moment of his greatest triumph when he is consecrated “king of kings”. He can only suppose that his world has gone awry. The dice game is symbolic of the quixotic, vulnerable human condition in which one knows not why one is born, when one will die, and why one faces reverses on the way. His is a world where blindness is more than a physical flaw, where life is a game governed by deceptive rules, in which an innocent player is nevertheless pushed to the point of staking everything. The Mahabharata seeks an answer to this human dilemma in dharma and looks to the ruler to bring predictability in our lives.
Ramesh’s decision led to a huge outcry. On February 15, Agricultural minister Sharad Pawar wrote to the prime minister: “Varieties that have stood the strictest scrutiny of our very elaborate regulatory regime based on scientific analysis should be vigorously encouraged... Any hesitation on our part will set the clock back… It takes years of hard work and extraordinary scientific acumen to conduct research in these areas.” Pawar argued that the success of Bt cotton “needs to be replicated in food, fruit and vegetable crops to ensure long lasting food security”.
India’s farmers have reaped abundant rewards from Bt cotton. Their income and India’s cotton production have more than doubled in the past five years. Today, 80 per cent of India’s cotton acreage is planted with Bt cotton as India crossed the US in 2007-08 to become the world’s second-largest producer. Ramesh has argued that a food crop is not the same as cotton and requires far higher levels of safety. Critics have reminded him, however, that similar fears were voiced against Bt cotton, and indeed against hybrid wheat in the 1960s.
The protest against Ramesh’s decision was joined by other ministers, who called for a science-based approach to the problem rather than one based on emotion and fears. The PM called a meeting of the ministers concerned on February 24 to contain the damage. While the meeting did not overturn Ramesh’s decision, it did reverse Ramesh’s assumptions. Ramesh had questioned the logic of letting private companies drive biotechnology research in agriculture. The PM defended the importance of public private partnerships in agricultural R&D. When asked how long the moratorium would last, Ramesh said, “What is the hurry?” The PM pointed to the urgency and the need for a clear time-bound decision.
It is the duty of governments today to bring predictability to the uncertain lives of entrepreneurs. In Mahyco’s case, however, the government that was meant to create order became the source of uncertainty. There have been so many such examples in India recently, and this has shaken the confidence of investors. The ambiguous role of the telecom minister in continuing saga of the auctioning of 3G spectrum is well known. Equally disheartening is the experience of private entrepreneurs in dealing with the railways ministry. Encouraged to invest in freight movement, investors have discovered formidable hurdles placed in their way by the Railways. Unless the Bt brinjal decision is reversed quickly, it will undermine investors’ confidence and deny India’s agriculture the fruit of science that could usher a second green revolution.
The author has written “The Difficulty of Being Good: on the subtle art of dharma” (Penguin 2009).
