Green shoots: Ben Bernanke said on August 21 that “the prospects for a return to growth in the near term appear good”. The US central banker’s optimism is a daisy-chain of qualifications: prospects, near term and appear. But the financial markets did not care for such nuances; oil and stocks were both up. That’s typical these days.
The financial world is certainly in recovery mode, while the real economic news is still quite mixed.
The Breakingviews.com Green Shoots Spotter moved up from 2.4 to 2.6 last week. That is its fifth week stuck between “Getting less bad” and “Not just stabilising but stable”. While the economy is no longer “Still in real trouble” (1.0 on the GSS scale), it is still some way even from “Slow growth" let alone “Rapid recovery” (5.0 on the GSS scale).
Beans tell the story. UK baked-beans sales are growing more slowly now that shoppers are feeling less poor. But when it comes to coffee beans, luxury is still out. Starbucks is cutting some prices.
The Green Shoots Spotter is 17 weeks old and due for a slight autumn revamp. In particular, the categories may need new names. Suggestions are welcome.
