US employment could be a tease in the run-up to November's presidential election. Democrat front-runner Hillary Clinton can point to the better-than-expected gains of 215,000 positions in March, the latest in a long run of steady job creation under President Barack Obama. But Republicans and Donald Trump may focus on the slow pace of progress overall.
The unemployment rate reached a post-crisis peak of 10 per cent in late 2009, the first year of Obama's first term. In March it stood at five per cent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday. Behind that shift lie nearly 10 million jobs created since Obama took office - or more than 14 million from the employment nadir in early 2010, an increase of more than 10 per cent in the working population.
The jobless rate did tick up from 4.9 per cent in February, but that was for a positive reason - a further ratchet upward in the number of people in the workforce. The participation rate has been going up since September. If the trend continues, labour conditions should tighten further and hourly wage inflation may before long exceed the unexciting 2.3 per cent in the year to March.
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Clinton can make a case for building on Obama's legacy. But her Democratic rival, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, has hammered home points on weak wage growth and rising income inequality, and so far his message has found receptive listeners. Regular Americans' pay isn't likely to take off in time for the election.
The same generalised disenchantment has bolstered Republicans including Trump. As well as uninspiring, if long-running, employment progress, they can cite unimpressive gross domestic product growth, which slowed to a 1.4 per cent annual pace in the fourth quarter last year against 2.4 per cent for 2015 as a whole. The latest jobs report detail also fuels concern about the health of US manufacturing.
In a broader context, the US economy remains one of the brighter spots in the world, especially among developed countries. Yet there are plenty of data points for both sides of the political aisle to seize upon. The two-sided jobs coin will probably still be spinning when the election comes around.
