While the stench around Camelot is certainly not as bad as it has been in decades past, there is no gainsaying that the walls of the fortress are substantially weakened. And with the wolf blowing hard with all his breath, there is little doubt that the entire structure is set to crumble.
It has looked vulnerable several times in the past, but - famous last words - this time it's different. Rather like Bahadur Shah Zafar, the last of the Moghuls, the current incumbent - or quasi-incumbent - looks particularly weak and vacillating and generally unsuited to rule. Further, the Queen Mother (or Regent) has had health problems, which could deteriorate at any time.
Of course, the Royal Family may be able to hold on to its throne for one more go-around. The wolf, who is doing all the work, has no real friends anywhere, including and particularly within his own party. People fear him or hate him or are jealous of him. And, in any case, he, too, is unsuited to rule, since, being a wolf, he has no sensitivity to what is important to people.
For instance, it is clear to anyone who reads a newspaper in India today that women's rights are a key issue, both from the standpoint of fairness and justice and also for economic development, the wolf's trump card. It is impossible to accelerate development with half the population suppressed. The wolf has no articulated view on the subject, but everything points to his being extremely feudal and backward in his thinking in this area.
At 918, Gujarat's sex ratio was 22 points below the national average and 24th out of 35 states and Union territories in 2011. All the states worse than Gujarat are from North India. Further, Gujarat's ratio has worsened from 921 in 2001; then it ranked 21st and was only 12 points below the national average.
More directly reflecting the wolf's lack of interest or worse, Maya Kodnani, whom he had appointed as state minister for women and child development in 2007, was convicted in 2012 for her role in the Naroda Patiya massacre; witnesses said that she handed out swords to Hindu rioters, exhorted them to attack Muslims and at one point fired a pistol, and, according to testimony in the court, mobile phone records indicated that she was present at the scene of the riots. Women and children were, of course, the worst affected by the massacre. Through all this, not a word of acknowledgment or, heaven help us, regret from the wolf.
As part of his clean-up campaign, he has been making some attempts to acknowledge parts of his darker history, speaking about forgiveness of mistakes. But, just as a leopard cannot change his spots, a wolf, too, cannot abjure its natural propensity to kill sheep. Lest I be misunderstood, "killing sheep" is merely a metaphor for the take-no-prisoners attitude the wolf has displayed thus far, an attitude that will collapse in the face of India's pluralistic and complex democracy.
Thus, while the wolf may certainly be doing the country a great favour by accelerating the end of the age of Camelot, his own future, like that of most wolves, will be short, and, perhaps, violent.
In other words, political instability, with perhaps three central elections in the next five years, is on the cards. This means that managing the fiscal deficit will remain extremely difficult.
Of course, this does not necessarily mean that growth will remain depressed, at least in the near term. It is nearly impossible to find an analyst who isn't down in the mouth about India's macro-state, and, as we all (should) know by now, a 100 per cent negative rating is the first signal of a turnaround.
Secondly, there are increasingly positive signs from the US economy. Growth seems to be coming back, and, with unemployment falling, markets will start pushing US interest rates (a bit) higher. Another couple of months of positive data from the US could well trigger a dollar break-out pushing gold, copper, the euro and everything else lower. On balance, this should be good for our current account deficit, which could provide some additional support to sentiment.
However, it is most important that the government persist with pushing irreversible structural changes aggressively. This means the Aadhaar programme and other technology infusion into government procedures must accelerate; the finance minister's apparent battle cry on black money (which has reached almost 1970s' proportions) must be brought to fruition and quickly; and, of course, the goods and services tax must be passed this fiscal year.
This would gird our national loins against the potential terrors of serious political instability and enable the country to at least keep up the current sub-optimal growth.
jamal@mecklai.com
Disclaimer: These are personal views of the writer. They do not necessarily reflect the opinion of www.business-standard.com or the Business Standard newspaper
