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As the only country in the neighbourhood to have remained a loyal friend and Indian ally over the decades, the results from Bhutan’s second democratic elections are expected to return the relationship to its original pristine position.
This means, not only that PDP chief Tshering Tobgay, whose party won 32 seats out of 47, will now become Bhutan’s new prime minister, but also that the young monarch Jigme Khesar Wangchuk’s line on maintaining the primacy of the India relationship will be carried forward.
In conversations with several officials and political observers from both India and Bhutan, it can now be revealed that the relationship has been under considerable stress over the last year, with outgoing prime minister Jigme Y Thinley’s decision to meet former Chinese prime minister Wen Jiabao at a meeting in Rio de Janeiro last June creating a sort of tipping point that considerably upset Delhi.
Thinley’s argument that Bhutan needed to open up to its other big neighbour, China, especially for economic reasons, even as it cemented ties with its southern neighbour India, didn’t cut much ice with Delhi. Indian officials said the meeting with Wen came as a surprise.
Clearly, Bhutan’s geographic location has been considered by Delhi to be so strategically important that since the time of Jawaharlal Nehru it has been a recipient of extraordinary economic aid as well as political consolidation. The resultant special relationship survived the revamping of the bilateral treaty in 2007, when Bhutan sprang loose from the need to ask India permission to strike up relations with other countries, as well as the end of the monarchy in 2008, when the first elections were held. Nevertheless, Bhutan continued to be described by the rest of South Asia as “the last bastion within Delhi’s sphere of influence”.
The unhappiness in Delhi caused by the Thinley-Wen meeting in June 2012 needed remedy, which is when the fifth king, Jigme Khesar – sometimes described as a young man with a wise head on his shoulders -- is believed to have sent an indirect message to Delhi reiterating Bhutan’s determination to maintain its special relationship with India. Delhi reciprocated by inviting him to be the chief guest at the Republic Day ceremonies in January 2013.
Indian officials pointed out that in Bhutan’s very young democratic system, the King continued to play an incredibly important role, especially as a stabiliser and pacifier. The tricameral nature of parliament continues to have the King as its head, although there is no space for him to play a political role.
Indian officials concede that the timing of the recent subsidy cut for gas and kerosene to Bhutan, on the eve of the elections, was “not only insensitive because it was seemingly patronising, but that India’s messaging and communication strategies” could be much better.
They pointed out that the reduction of subsidies was “never a malicious step” as it was taken with two goals in mind : First, in line with the government directive to reduce expenditure (domestic as well as foreign, except for Afghanistan), officials were looking for ways and means to curtail expenses across the board. Second, an evaluation of the aid to Bhutan had revealed considerable lacunae in recent months.
For example, Indian officials found that exports to Bhutan in 2010 amounted to Rs 725 crore, and to Rs 1,026 crore in 2011, but the figures from the Bhutanese side were radically different : Rs 2772 crore and Rs 3367 crore, respectively.
Indian officials said the discrepancy was too high and suspected “unscrupulous elements” of taking advantage of the special economic relationship. They conveyed their concerns to the Bhutanese, who seemingly ignored the Indian concerns.
Moreover, Power Trading Corp, which was buying power from Bhutan’s Chukha hydel plant for Rs 2 per unit and selling it to Indian states like Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand and West Bengal at Rs 1.55 per unit – with the remaining subsidy of 45 paise going from the Ministry of External Affairs to PTC – had been told by the MEA that it could no longer go on with this subsidy.
But with the DPT having lost the elections under the guardianship of former prime minister Thinley, India feels it will now be able to return to business as usual with the new Bhutan. PDP’s Tobgay seems to have intelligently used the subsidies controversy in his party’s election campaign as a charge against the DPT as well as Thinley’s inability to handle the all-important relationship with India.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, alluding to the recent controversy on the subsidies issue, has now written to Tobgay to say he had already told his officials to take another look at India’s plan assistance to Bhutan. Singh assured him of “unflinching and steadfast” support from India, and insisted that India will remain mindful of Bhutan’s interest as a privileged partner of India.
Officials said the revamped assistance to Bhutan would start sooner than later, especially because LPG and kerosene prices had doubled and tripled across the country, making India an issue in the elections.
Kuensel, a majority-government owned newspaper in Bhutan pointed out that one of the first things a new government needed to do would be to mobilise funds for the 11th Plan, which began on July 1. “It is also likely that it will get all the support and more in terms of assistance from the government of India, and the fuel subsidies withdrawn earlier this month will be restored,” Kuense said.
PDP general secretary Sonam Jatsho told PTI that the PDP government’s “first priority would be to rebuild and strengthen Indo-Bhutan relations...In the long term interest of strengthening democracy, the PDP government will request the government of India to finance a significant part of our plans for having an economic stimulus.”
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