Indian equities may continue to underperform other emerging mkts on earnings downgrades.
The central bank’s battle against inflation may not be yielding much, but it’s definitely hurting the profitability of companies, as demand slows. First quarter numbers have come in marginally below the expectations of the Street, even as revenues are in line with expectations. Analysts say the ‘funnel impact’ is visible in the Q1 results, as high policy rates will keep pressure on demand and hence, corporate profitability.
Revenues of the 30 Sensex companies grew 25.9 per cent annually in the first quarter, but earnings came under pressure. Of the sectors in the benchmark index, consumer sector (20.9 per cent) and petrochemicals (16.7 per cent) posted the strongest bottomline growth. The earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) margins of Sensex companies contracted 200 basis points due to the pressure of raw material prices. While petrochemical, oil & gas and consumer companies led the growth in revenues in the first quarter, banks, telecom, real estate and metals were laggards.
According to Motilal Oswal’s analysis of first quarter results, aggregate profit after tax (PAT) of the Sensex companies grew at 10 per cent YoY against estimates of 13 per cent. Operating profit of the Sensex companies also came below expectations, at 15 per cent, against the estimates of 17 per cent. However, the growth in profits needs to be seen in perspective, as this PAT growth has been driven by the stellar performance of a few companies. The five highest-growth Sensex companies were Sterlite (82 per cent), Coal India (63 per cent), HDFC Bank (34 per cent), Tata Power (34 per cent) and ICICI Bank (30 per cent). In contrast, seven companies to report decline in PAT are SBI (-46 per cent), Bharti (-28 per cent), Tata Steel (-24 per cent), DLF (-13 per cent) Sun Pharma (-11 per cent), JSPL (-2 per cent) and Cipla (-2 per cent).
Several sectors have seen a decline on a sequential basis. This trend is expected to continue till the macro-economic situation improves, claim analysts. Most brokerages have now downgraded the Sensex EPS by 1.5 to 2 per cent for FY12. Analysts expect a Sensex CAGR of 16 per cent over FY11-13. With earnings downgrades, the underperformance of Indian markets is likely to continue for some more time.
