The historic deal struck between Iran and five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany in Vienna on Tuesday will have implications at many levels. For the Islamic republic, it should effectively curb its nuclear programme and prevent it from getting a nuclear weapon. The understanding – reached after 19 days of hectic negotiations, with the United States playing a key role with the support and leadership of its president, Barack Obama – will also mean restrictions on Iran’s uranium enrichment levels, centrifuge numbers and a cap on its stockpiles of low-enriched uranium. There are sunset dates for many provisions that range from 10 years to as long a period as 25 years. This may not be a perfect deal, but it seems there are no risky compromises and it certainly is better than most other alternatives available to the negotiators. For Mr Obama, who has put his full weight behind these talks and has vowed to veto any legislation that could prevent the successful implementation of the deal, it is also an occasion for him to finally point to a significant foreign-policy achievement. Meanwhile, in Iran, ordinary Iranians flocked to the streets with flags, some praising Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in particular; the Iranian foreign ministry insists the country’s rights to nuclear enrichment – and, by extension, its dignity – have been preserved. Importantly, the road is now open not just to the dismantling of sanctions, but to ending the decades-long exile of the Islamic republic from the mainstream.
Mr Obama and his administration have persisted in seeking this goal in the teeth of the severest possible opposition. The United States’ regional allies – Israel and Saudi Arabia in particular – mince no words in declaring their opposition to Iran, and to any relaxation of the US stance on Iran. Israel’s mercurial prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, has denounced the deal as a “historic mistake” with all the resources at his command, and has promised to lobby the US Congress to stall or scuttle it - a not inconsiderable threat, given Israel’s clout on Capitol Hill. In any case, Congressional Republicans – and some Democrats – are willing to vote against the deal, and Mr Obama will have to lobby hard. However, it is clear that he has shown the appetite to wipe out existing lines in the sand, and to persist with diplomatic methods. He has reversed two of the longest antagonisms in US history — against Cuba and against Iran. He has been wary of intervention in Syria. It remains to be seen if he can add to this list, in his time remaining in office, with a correction of one or two other major US policy missteps — such as its continuing enabling of Pakistan’s militarist establishment.
For India, of course, such a reversal would be considered overdue. It is often lame-duck presidents who can be prevailed upon to invest political capital in such forward-looking policies. As for India’s position on the Iran deal itself, it will no doubt welcome the stability that the mainstreaming of Iran will provide to West and Central Asia. Yet it will not all be good. India has not taken advantage of Iran’s period of exile sufficiently — it should have used its privileged position to embed itself in Iran’s security, commercial and diplomatic establishment. As Iran opens up, India will struggle to maintain the special relationship, economic and diplomatic, that has aspired to creating and maintaining with Iran.
