Is all macroeconomic analysis time-pass, idle chat and ephemeral?

Macroeconomics comprises 6-7 interconnected variables, each of which can or will be different depending on what other 6 are. So what you get at the best of times are wide ranges of possible outcomes.

The first month of each year is a time to wonder and ponder. Wonder, about the future and ponder, about the past.

Where economics is concerned it is hard to say which is more entertaining, modern macroeconomics or economists. Let me explain.

Depending on whether you are an optimist or a pessimist, you tend to come out with feel-good projections or deep worries. But, truth be told, each forecast or projection and worry is what is called a ‘hypothetical syllogism’ in statement logic.

This syllogism takes the form of saying “If X, then Y.” The reverse is not true in economics because it