Is global turbulence likely?

The US Fed has learned from the "taper tantrum", and will carefully choreograph words and deeds in the coming years

The US legislature has approved a remarkably large stimulus package. In the short run, this stimulus package and the normalisation of the economy owing to large-scale vaccination in the US will generate a demand surge. These developments are likely to generate export buoyancy for India. But there are concerns that this could generate inflation. The US Federal Reserve (US Fed) is committed to a 2 per cent inflation target. When inflationary pressures surface, the US Fed will raise rates. There are slight signs that a rate increase could come in 2023, but there is a significant uncertainty. Comparisons with the