On April 25, the day 91 civic bodies went to polls in Bengal, the ground beneath their feet shook. The devastating earthquake in Nepal sent tremors through the state; the magnitude of the jolt in Kolkata was 5. It was, perhaps, a sign of the impending election results that were to decimate the Opposition parties.
The results declared on April 28 stood thus: the Trinamool Congress (TMC) won 70 of the 92 civic bodies in Bengal. In the Kolkata Municipal Corporation (KMC), it bagged 114 wards, better than 2010's 95 wards. Its rival (well, hardly), the Left Front could manage just six of the civic bodies and in the city, 15 wards. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)'s dream of emerging as the principal Opposition was crushed; it failed to bag a single municipality and in the urban KMC got half of what even the Left Front managed. The Congress held ground, nearly, with five civic bodies and five KMC wards.
In 2010, the TMC had won 33 municipalities of 81, while the Left had bagged 18. The Congress had won seven.
Given the backdrop, the response from TMC Parliamentary Party Leader (Rajya Sabha) and Chief National Spokesperson of the TMC, Derek O'Brien, was but natural. When it was quite clear from the trends that the TMC was to emerge as a clear winner, he tweeted: "92 municipalities counting on. Trinamool sweeping. BJP finishing 4th with zero... gas balloon gone phuuuush".
In terms of vote share, however, the BJP finished third with 15.37 per cent in the KMC polls. The Left Front was at 18.72 per cent and the Congress at 6.54 per cent. The TMC was at a staggering 50 per cent. But extrapolating from the Lok Sabha (in which the BJP got a 17 per cent vote share) results, the BJP should have got 23.65 per cent. Between May 2014 and now, therefore, what has gone wrong for the BJP?
For one, the Modi wave at the time of the Lok Sabha elections was missing, but an ineffective leadership in the state has its own demerits.
Amit Shah, seen as the man of the match in the 2014 elections, who was brushing up on his Bangla for better interaction with the cadre, was last seen in Bengal in January. Shah's last rally in Kolkata was in November when crowds cheered to, "Your government's ulti geenti (reverse count) starts now." The sting in the BJP's campaign has been missing since, save for the somewhat perfunctory television studio appearances by the state president.
In the interim, West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, met Prime Minister Narendra Modi, ostensibly, to discuss the state's finances, evoking a swipe from the Communist Party of India (Marxist) or the CPI(M) whether it was "ghar wapasi". That may be far-fetched, especially given that Banerjee enjoys the support of much of the 27 per cent minority vote bank in Bengal. But is it a mere coincidence that the TMC is "on board" with the government on the Goods and Services Tax?
Moreover, on May 9, Modi is slated to launch three social security schemes - the Pradhan Mantri Suraksha Bima Yojana, Pradhan Mantri Jeevan Jyoti Bima Yojana and Atal Pension Yojana - in Kolkata. There is widespread speculation that there could be a chance meeting with Banerjee at an event, though Nabanna officials have said that no official meeting has been scheduled, as yet. The visit, however, comes in the wake of a more friendlier equation with the TMC.
The question doing the rounds is that has the BJP leadership resigned to the realisation that Bengal is a fading dream? And does that leave the Left Front as the reluctant principal Opposition? The Left Front appears to be more enthused than in the last few years with the poll results that have coincided with the change in the party leadership.
Since 2009, the Left Front has only seen reverses in elections. This is the first time in recent memory that it has managed to arrest the slide. On the basis of Lok Sabha results, it should have bagged 11 seats in KMC, but it has managed 15. That, for the Left, is enough to build on.
The Left Front has been at it for a while now. Since August 2014, there have been at least 10 taxi strikes in Kolkata, mostly backed by the CPI(M)-affiliated Centre of Indian Trade Unions, for a revised fare structure, mainly. Around 37,000 taxis ply in the city. Also, the Left Front is seeing green shoots with the recent success of the "bandh" in Bengal. And all said, the civic polls have thrown up 11 hung civic bodies and the Left Front has won the Siliguri Municipal Corporation from the TMC.
If not the BJP, could the Left Front be a worrying factor for Banerjee in 2016? As things stand, the Left Front is still picking up the pieces from the rubble of the last elections.
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