It's time to rewrite the war playbook

Why did the think-tanks, the military experts and the policy wonks get the Russia-Ukraine war so wrong?

Seven months into the Ukraine War, it’s enlightening to note how wrong many experts were. In February, it was assumed the Russian invasion force would roll through Ukraine in a few weeks.

All the data suggested an overwhelming advantage to Russia. Russia’s population (144 million) is 3.5 times that of Ukraine (44 million). Russian per capita of $10,219 (2021) was over four times that of Ukraine ($2,450). Those things count — the smaller, poorer country rarely wins wars.

Apart from nuclear weapons, the Russians apparently had overwhelming conventional superiority. Ukraine has no navy to speak of, and very limited maritime access.  Ukraine