Jamal Mecklai: Aa jao maidan mein!

MARKET MANIAC

The most significant outcome of the recent election is the fact that the new Lok Sabha has 141 members who are under 40 years of age. That's nearly 26 per cent of the total number of seats, and more than 3 times the percentage of under-40s in the previous Parliament!

I had, of course, voted for a young man myself. Faced with a choice between an arrogant political hack and a 26-year-old with a computer, it was no race. And, clearly "" and on reflection, unsurprisingly "" much of India felt the same way. The election was a vote for an India of the future.

I had written an article with the same title "" Aa jao maidan mein "" some years ago, and I dusted off the files and found, to my amazement, that it was way back in November 1990.

I had said:"Naïve as it may sound, power is with the people. We have to use it. We "" each of us "" need to do more than simply vote. We need to educate our children more personally. We need to run for political office. We need to start more political parties. We need to act. And we need to remember that "" politically speaking at least "" we are Indians, first, last and always.

Otherwise we have no right to complain.

Aa jao maidan mein!"
Easy words, as usual. But, it's now fifteen years later and the current generation has started to act.

To quote another, much more recent (March 2004), report: "...the good news is that there appear to be increasing numbers of young(er) people entering politics, and while youth is not totally exempted from foolishness and venality, I do believe that, in general, younger people are more into life, which gives them less time for chamchagiri. ... It's the time to disco!"

To me this news "" of young people taking to politics "" is really the best I have heard in years. And as a result, I've been badgering everyone I meet about his or her reaction to the election.

Interestingly, there is a clear divide of views. All the plain (i.e, non-business) people I have spoken to "" my mother, my maid, the liftman, the woman who sells fish, cabdrivers "" have all been somewhere between pleased and very pleased. [I will admit, as a caveat, that my daily life sample is limited to Bombay].

One view, which was quite widespread, was that while the previous government had certainly achieved some successes, its shocking indifference to the horrors of Gujarat and its foolishness over the IIM fees made people feel embarrassed and, in some cases, humiliated as Indians.

Some felt that with the new government, whichever way the economics worked out, at least our pride at being Indian would be regenerated. And if the economy did continue to perform, as seems generally quite likely, we could be as proud of our politics as of our economic successes.

On the other hand, every businessperson I have spoken to was generally negative, concerned about political instability and the deficit, even though all of them agreed that the underlying strength of the economy would not be materially affected by the change of government. [Note the surge of $1.2 billion in the reserves during the last week of May.]

The good news is that when I pressed my suit, most "" nearly all "" of them agreed that with a newer, younger, India at the helm, it is the time to disco!

Two conversations in particular stand out. One was with a senior officer in a public sector financial institution whose first reaction was that political sclerosis will slow down the economy.

When I made my case, however, this person brightened dramatically "" in fact, animatedly "" and said that the new minister of state to whom the organisation reports was a woman and under 40 years of age. She had already had her first meeting with them, and it was far more straightforward than previous ministerial meetings "" no PS, no PAs, no hangers on "" and, with a delighted ring, my friend added, "and Coke was served in cans!"

The other conversation was with the CFO of an IT major, who said he was still optimistic when I asked him what he thought about the new government.

He said the "crazies" would continue to spout crazy stuff but business would remain strong.

I pointed out to him that the age distribution of the political drivers of the country is beginning to resemble the age distribution of some of the most successful IT companies in the country. [I had read recently that well over 50 per cent of Infosys' employees were under 25 years of age, and that this proportion had been increasing over the past few years.]

He ended up even more "" rather than just still "" optimistic. I think he owes me lunch.

In any case, I think the real news is that the perception of politics as the "last "" and sometimes first "" refuge of scoundrels" is changing. More young people will be drawn in "" and Nandan, Nasser, Oscar, you can be young even at 50 "" and India, over the next ten years, will accelerate even faster than it has in the recent past.

There will be more volatility, of course "" that is the nature of youth. The "older guard" will have to use their experience to manage this volatility, but "" and there is a huge amount of anecdotal evidence that confirms this "" higher volatility usually goes hand in hand with higher growth. [Every emerging market from Asia to Latin America has, over the last 20 years, suffered higher volatility "" in economic growth, in exchange rates, in interest rates and in politics "" than India, and has enjoyed higher aggregate growth.]

Aa jao maidan mein!

jamal@mecklai.com