Back from a wondrous week (or so) in New York (and London and Limerick), and I am delighted to report that New York is still New York — feels like being wooed by an insatiable lover. At my age, that is both flattering and overwhelming.
But worry not, I’ll spare you the details.
Instead, I’d like to report that America is in the process of a fundamental sociological change, one that will lead to a new era of tolerance and cooperation. President Obama is, of course, a key player in this change, although it is important to recognise that the change is much bigger than him. He is merely the (very) right guy in the right place at the right time.
And the good news is that Michelle is back at his side — and boy, does he need some loving? Till a month or so ago, he had looked extremely strained, after the health-care and financial-reform battles, the horrifying oil spill, and, of course, the continuing below-the-screeching-media-radar agenda. And all this while dealing with the mostly ignorant, slightly racist, and often insulting babble put out by the still fairly large — though declining — right wing fringe of the US polity.
Historically, the US always had a very narrow political spectrum, certainly compared with other democracies, whether in Western Europe or any part of Asia or Latin America. There were always two Americas, “…one based on religious liberty, the other on cultural assimilation…”, but they lived in reasonable harmony till the early 1980s, when Ronald Reagan moved from Hollywood to the political stage, and strongly politicised this dichotomy. The religious right was born and US politics started to become vituperative.
This trend accelerated till the Bush (II) era, by which time America was more politically fractured than at any time in its history. People either hated or loved Bush, just as they had either loved or hated Clinton. As a result, political decision-making became more and more intractable. The minority party, as in many other countries — notably including India — started taking the term political opposition literally. By the time George W was running for his second term, there were many Americans who were ashamed and swore they would leave the country if he won a second time.
I don’t know how many actually did, but the good news is that this horrendous political divisiveness is on its way out. It peaked in 2008, when the poorly educated (some would say ignorant), less than forthright (some would say dishonest), and hardly irreproachable (some would say immoral) Sarah Palin was thrust towards the vice presidency of the United States. It was like a bad dream or a reality TV show.
It is hard to imagine anything more grotesque, even in America. And it is this extreme positioning — hugely overbought (or sold) in market parlance — that signals the turning point of decades of wasteful, indeed sinful, infighting.
Everything in life cycles — nothing moves in one direction forever, although it often seems like it will. My father has a chart behind his desk that is headlined “Depressions never last forever”. The point of it is that in the middle of a trend — and, more particularly towards the end of it — it is well nigh impossible to see anything else, which is why most market (and other) analysts are seldom able to predict turning points.
After the fact, of course, it all becomes clear. Everyone can see that the chart has turned and is now moving down (or up). Another signal is that once the tide has turned, it is well nigh impossible to imagine what could create a higher peak (or lower trough), at least in the immediately foreseeable future.
Returning to my conviction that Sarah Palin is the end of a bad dream, I recognise that I am definitively in a majority of one — not a single person I spoke to in New York agreed with me. This is hardly surprising, since there is still a huge amount of debris floating around — negativity and intolerance have peaked but not ended.
That may take a few years. Intermediate waves may form, some of which may again appear quite frightening. But, until something more grotesque than Sarah Palin gets thrown up even higher than she was — and she’s not exactly a featherweight — I have no doubt that the trend for America (and the world) has turned positive.
So, go forth, Mr Obama. The Congressional elections in November, while tough, will be much better than you expect. Keep Michelle by your side. And don’t let up — the force, if you want to call it that, is with you.
Allahoakbar!
