Between Mali and Maldives, the government here has had its hands full these past few days, as it contemplates helping the reconstruction of one of Africa’s poorest nations, alongside exerting its influence in the Indian Ocean island-nation in an effort to restore democracy there.
Certainly, the promise to commit $100 million in the reconstruction of Mali, after French troops recently evicted most of the Al-Qaeda from that country, is highly unusual and constitutes a great leap forward for India’s usually cautious foreign policy approach. Even in Maldives, there is much more energy this February in doing the right thing by the Maldivians, unlike last February when Delhi deemed the transfer of power or coup from Mohamed Nasheed to Mohamed Waheed to be legitimate.
Certainly, the ongoing struggle for power in Maldives constitutes one of the most interesting stories in South Asia. A former bureaucrat in the United Nations and the first Maldivian to have studied at Stanford University, Waheed inveigled himself to the top job last year by allowing the former Maldivian president, Abdul Maumoon Gayoom, to play puppeteer. When Nasheed, a charismatic and democratically elected president, had a judge arrested for a repeatedly biased record in January 2012, Gayoom had Waheed waiting in the wings to replace Nasheed. The Maldivian security forces played their part by overthrowing Nasheed.
A whole year later, Delhi has sought to make amends. Nasheed was invited to visit India on an official visit earlier this month, when he met National Security Adviser Shiv Shankar Menon. On his return from Argentina, external affairs minister Salman Khurshid has been in regular touch with him, as well as other actors in Maldives. Last week, the ministry of external affairs stated the Waheed government should hold a free, fair and credible election in September, implying Nasheed should be allowed to participate in it; if he was arrested, he would be effectively eliminated from the election.
India’s change of heart was forced by a series of miscalculations by the Waheed government but, most importantly, was precipitated by Nasheed walking into the Indian high commission in Male last week, seeking the Indian government’s protection. Delhi was taken totally by surprise, though it was aware the Hulhumale court in the Maldivian capital had issued a summons for Nasheed on the charge that he had illegally arrested a judge.
The standoff continues even as this article goes to press, with Nasheed still inside the high commission in Male and the Indian government burning the wires, hoping to find a solution.
Rumours are afoot that India’s outgoing high commissioner, D M Mulay, was summoned to the Maldivian foreign office and scolded for allowing external interference inside the high commission, a reference to hosting Nasheed. A second and more important rumour is about a possible compromise between Nasheed and the judiciary; either charges could be withdrawn against Nasheed or these could be deferred until after the elections are held on September 7 or Nasheed could be tried in absentia and sentenced.
Some say the Indian government could press Waheed and the power behind the throne, former dictator Gayoom, to drop charges against Nasheed because they have seen through the game both have played over the past year. India and the world know Maldives has barely enough money to import a month’s worth of foodstuff and other essential commodities. The idea of economic sanctions has sometimes been known to work wonders.
And, today, the government sent a special envoy to Maldives, to broker a compromise between all sides.
Considering Delhi intervened in favour of Gayoom in 1988, Rajiv Gandhi being the prime minister, when Sri Lankan terrorist rebels sought to overthrow the former, India’s change of heart has been interesting.
The turning point, of course, came when Waheed threw out Indian infrastructure major GMR, though it had spent half the promised $500 million to build an airport in Male. Waheed’s action infuriated India enough to take a close look at his actions in the past year. These included giving Chinese tourist operators 18 islands to open resorts and accept greater Chinese aid in housing, as well as a museum for the island. Considering Maldives lies astride the equator and within kissing distance of the US base on Diego Garcia, it was clear Waheed was getting the Chinese in to balance the influence of the Americans.
The Maldivian story, like the one in Mali, is not over. Watch this space.
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