Various analyses of the results of the state Assembly elections have overlooked an important factor — the impact these will have on the president’s election in July next year. The electoral constituency includes members of state Assemblies and the Parliament. Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, with a substantial number of non-Congress MLAs, account for about 107,000 votes out of 11 million votes. The state Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Goa, Uttarakhand, Punjab and Manipur would have taken place by July 2012. Together these account for 131,000 votes. Given the bare majority the UPA enjoys in Parliament, the votes of various states – which account for half of the total number – will play an important role in deciding the outcome of the presidential election. The Congress would like to have its own candidate as president because he or she would then be in office at the time of the next general elections in 2014. Mamata Banerjee may play a decisive role in selecting the candidate for the UPA. She is quite likely to opt for Pranab Mukherjee, who is a very senior Congress leader.
A Seshan, on email
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