George Soros, the billionaire investor and philanthropist, has talked much about the “bubble theory” and its applications in social sciences. Though Soros’ earlier publications were mostly ignored by academicians, his theory presented in the book The Crash of 2008 gained prominence during the financial crisis in the US. So much so that even institutions like the Massachusetts Institute of Technology invited him for a public seminar. Are there lessons to be learnt from the bubble theory and can we apply it to the present fasting movement initiated by Anna Hazare, Baba Ramdev and their followers?
Anna’s fast was the initial bubble and with Ramdev’s fast, the fasting movement has become a “superbubble”. Can we predict where this superbubble is headed? Soros argues that since the participants in such bubbles themselves affect the bubble, the predictions need to be determined endogenously. The Indian government is one such important participant and it will have to act decisively by holding discussions in the Parliament on the issue of black money stashed by Indian citizens in foreign banks, albeit without giving names. Will the eventual bursting of the superbubble then lead to a national midterm election?
Chandrashekhar G Ranade, Washington DC
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