A needless controversy is raging between the finance ministry and the ministry of statistics and programme implementation’s Central Statistical Office (CSO) on whether the economy is headed for a five per cent or a 5.5 per cent growth in the current fiscal. The CSO has projected a five per cent gross domestic product growth in its advance estimates, based largely on data till November and projections for the next four months factoring recent trends. This indicates a further slowdown in the second half of the year (H2) from 5.4 per cent in the first half (H1). The finance ministry – apparently keen to establish that things are looking up after P Chidambaram took over in August – cannot fathom these statistics. It says the downward looking trends have taken an upward turn after September owing to the government’s reform measures, and the growth rate in H2, even though marginally, would be better than that in the first half — giving an overall 5.5 per cent growth for the year. But, regardless of the improvement in trend in the post-September period “noticed” by the finance ministry and Planning Commission mandarins, what is clear is that even the 5.5 per cent growth is indicative of a continuing rot in the economy. In fact, with the December industrial output showing a decline – belying hopes of a recovery – the economy could be heading for a five per cent, or even a lower, growth.
Madhukar Kapadia, New Delhi
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