Exit polls have made the political and stock market beehives frenetic. The true interpretation of statistics lies more in what it hides than reveals. Opinion or exit polls may well have matured over time but the problem in a highly segmented electorate lies in deducing the seat share from the vote percentages. Assembly polls, where the combination of pre-poll allies has closely associated regional factors, are amenable to more rational analysis. The general elections provide no such leverage to poll gurus. In the 2004 elections, the AIADMK had a 30 per cent vote share with zero seats. In 2009, it had a 23 per cent vote share and nine seats. Maybe, the vicious polarisation of the electorate this time, has helped sharpen the contours of perception to the advantage of the poll pundits. Indian bourses are known for their high speculative bent and may have found an equally exuberant ally in exit polls.
R Narayanan, Ghaziabad
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